Industry new
When will this soft magnetic alloy return to high levels?
At present, China's soft magnetic alloys continue to adjust slightly. Although some varieties have steadily increased, but the margins are relatively modest, market turnover is relatively cool, especially in the southern market. Currently, most of them are in a closed state. This can not help but leave people with emotion. The steel market at the end of the year Reality is lighter than the off-season. In retrospect, since the beginning of November, domestic soft magnetic alloys began to consolidate. The overall situation is stable and there is a rise, but after three consecutive weeks, domestic soft magnetic alloys are still not much movement, and businesses have speculated that this soft magnetic When will the alloy return to high? According to the market report of China Steel Spot Net, as of the close of the 21st, the price of the Helu Steel Grade II Giant Screw in the Beijing market was 4,230 yuan per ton, which was a drop of 40 from the previous day; the Shanghai market was in the middle-day second grade large screw 4290-4340 yuan. / Ton, unchanged from the previous day. Shanghai market enthusiasm closing price 4150-4160 yuan / ton, stable slightly weaker than last week; Lecong hot market closing price 4220-4240 yuan / ton, basically the same as last weekend. Due to the failure of market transactions to continue to improve, dealers are more cautious in their mentality, and their enthusiasm for ordering is still not high, and domestic soft magnetic alloys tend to weaken. Last week, Baosteel, Anshan Iron and Steel and Wuhan Iron and Steel all lowered their tone on the new price policy. Recently, soft magnetic alloys are likely to remain weak. All along, winter is the off-season of the steel industry. In terms of daily output of crude steel, according to statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association, the daily production of crude steel in the first half of November was 1.664 million tons, down 3.1% month-on-month, and falling to the lowest level during the year. This is a new high of more than 17% from the year of June, but it may recover slightly in the later period. In the first half of the year, high-yield crude steel began to reduce production after the middle and late October period. The author believes that in addition to the reasons for the centralized maintenance of the seamless steel pipe plant in October, the off-season demand in the steel market is also an impact on the production enthusiasm of the seamless steel tube plant. One major factor. So far, although the downstream demand has still not changed, but with the gradual recovery of raw material prices, and the end of the maintenance of seamless steel pipe plant, it is estimated that the production enthusiasm of the seamless steel pipe plant will recover in the later period, until the recovery of crude steel production. After that, the steel market will once again face the pressure of inventory, and the difficulty of soft magnetic alloys to return to high positions will increase. In addition, due to the fear of a further recession in the world economy, global investment and consumption have recently been restrained. The US dollar currency has become a hedging means, of course, also inhibited the rise in steel and iron ore prices. In the short term, the risk of a European-style “hard debt default” has increased, and the spread of a more serious recession panic around the world has caused the steel market to operate weakly and does not rule out the possibility of further declines. The debt crisis in Europe will not be eased, and the upward movement of soft magnetic alloys will be hindered, and it will take some time to return to a high position. Terminal demand continues to be sluggish, which is one of the important factors that hinder the return of soft magnetic alloys to high levels. In the near term, expectations for increased downstream demand have increased. In terms of real estate, recently, the Institute of Economics of Renmin University pointed out that the central government may gradually loosen “limited loans” in the third quarter of next year, and then relax “restricted purchases,” but real estate decline is still the basic mode of adjustment. The People's Congress Research Department also predicts that local governments may adopt loosening strategies in the second quarter of next year. Although looking at the whole, the local government's dependence on land and the 9% social growth restraint line determine that the current round of real estate adjustment will not exceed 25%. In the third quarter, the central government may gradually relax the “limited loan” and then relax the “restriction of purchase”. However, the inertia of real estate declining determines that the overall decline is the basic mode of real estate adjustment next year. Terminal demand continues to be sluggish, and the domestic steel market will remain in the off-season for a long period of time, even if it is even lighter than in the off-season. The good news is that domestic inflation has eased somewhat. With the improvement of capital, the domestic expectation of reducing the deposit reserve ratio is also increasing. If the real estate "restricted loans" and "restricted purchases" policy loosen again next year, then demand for steel products will also have a pulling effect, and it will also have an effect on the rise of soft magnetic alloys. In general, it is unlikely that soft magnetic alloys will return to high levels in the short term. However, the recent decline in crude steel production has given the market a certain boost. The decline in social stocks across the board is also certain. To the extent that it stimulates the replenishment of businesses, at present, the business's winter storage behavior is ongoing, and the good news may bring a small peak to the steel market in the past year.
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